Nigerian airlines are under severe operational strain as aviation fuel (Jet A1) prices continue their sharp upward trajectory, fueled by escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, including the ongoing war involving Iran.
Recent market data shows Jet A1 now retailing at approximately ₦1,835 per litre in Kano, ₦1,820 in Abuja, ₦1,815 in Port Harcourt, and ₦1,780 in Lagos. This represents a dramatic jump from pre-conflict levels of around ₦1,000 per litre (plus or minus), with earlier spikes pushing prices from ₦940, ₦980 to ₦1,500–₦1,600 within weeks a rise of over 60% in some cases. While some reports cite averages around ₦1,500, ₦1,700 at major airports, the latest figures indicate further escalation in key locations.
Prof. Obiora Okonkwo, spokesman for the Airline Operators of Nigeria (AON), described the increase as "quite astronomical" in an Arise TV interview. He explained that airlines must submit proposed fare changes to the Nigeria Civil Aviation Authority (NCAA) at least two weeks in advance. Many current fares were filed before the latest surge, forcing carriers to absorb initial costs.
Okonkwo noted the timing is particularly challenging, as the post-holiday period sees passenger loads drop by 40–60%, reducing revenue buffers.The surge stems from global oil market volatility, with crude prices climbing above $100 per barrel due to supply risks from the Iran-related conflict a predictable impact on aviation, an industry sensitive to fuel costs and external factors like weather.
Aviation analyst Capt. Samuel Caulcrick linked Nigeria's high domestic prices to dollar dependency in petroleum transactions. Despite local refining (including at Dangote Refinery), operators convert naira to dollars for crude purchases on international markets. "If not for the dollar, the Jet A1 you are talking about would be around ₦900," he stated.
Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) interventions have prevented steeper naira depreciation (potentially to ₦1,000 per dollar), which would have worsened fuel costs further.
Experts warn that these elevated expenses where fuel often comprises 30–45% of operating costs will inevitably translate to higher airfares.
Business travelers may remain resilient, but leisure passengers could see reduced affordability, leading to lower seat occupancy and strained airline revenues. Some projections suggest domestic tickets, currently averaging around ₦150,000 one-way, could rise 20–25% or more, potentially reaching ₦185,000–₦200,000 if pressures persist.
Airlines continue to monitor the situation while navigating regulatory requirements and seasonal demand slumps, urging stabilizing measures from the CBN to strengthen the naira and ease dollar-driven fuel inflation.
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