President Bola Tinubu may win the forthcoming 2027 polls despite public discontent, The Economist reports.
In a report published on October 1, Nigeria’s Independence
Day, The Economist cited a worsening security crisis, biting effects of the
economic reforms, and popular political challengers as factors that should work
against the president’s re-election bid.
“On the face of it, Mr Tinubu’s cool is surprising,” the
newspaper wrote.
COMPLICATED ELECTORAL DYNAMICS
The Economist noted that the president’s apparent confidence
was not necessarily a reflection of widespread satisfaction with his
administration but more about Nigeria’s complicated electoral dynamics.
“Incumbents, with access to the ruling-party machinery and
plentiful cash to dole out goodies, have tended to have an advantage in recent
Nigerian elections,” it stated.
The Economist also identified the fragmentation of the
opposition as a factor.
Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, leading opposition candidates,
are flagbearers of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) and Nigeria Democratic
Congress (NDC) respectively.
The Economist said Atiku and Obi’s failure to form a joint
ticket could prevent opposition votes from being consolidated behind a single
candidate.
TheCable Index, TheCable’s research and data arm, showed how
a unification of opposition votes in the 2023 elections could have usurped
Tinubu.
In the polls, Atiku contested under the Peoples Democratic
Party (PDP) while Obi was the Labour Party (LP) candidate. Both men had
previously been allies under the PDP.
Quoting Joachim MacEbong of Control Risks, The Economist
said: “Because it’s not a united ticket, that anti-APC vote is not coalesced
into a single vote.”
RELIGION AND CYNICISM AS FACTORS
Religion was identified as another factor that may work in
Tinubu’s favour.
The Economist noted that Tinubu and Vice-President Kashim
Shettima, both being Muslims, resonate with the electorate in northern Nigeria.
The region also holds the most votes.
According to The Economist, religious identity could also
influence voters against Obi, a Catholic.
“Even voters who like Mr. Obi may rule him out because he is
a Catholic; the fact that he has a Muslim running mate may not be enough,” it
stated.
The publication also identified what it described as
political cynicism among some voters as perhaps the most significant factor.
It said some voters in northern communities might not judge
Tinubu’s administration solely on its record because of their experience of
poor public services.
“Many people are living where there has been no real
security, no real health care, no real schools. Over time, people’s
expectations get lower and lower,” MacEbong was quoted as saying.
The publication cited a woman in Maiduguri who said she
intended to vote for Tinubu as a “thank you” for medicine she received at a
government hospital.
VOTER TURNOUT AND IDENTITY POLITICS
The Economist also linked Tinubu’s prospects to voter
turnout, particularly in areas affected by insecurity.
It noted that although many voters might be disappointed
with the government, they might not necessarily turn that dissatisfaction into
votes against the incumbent.
“As long as the security crisis remains unresolved and
economic growth, which is expected to hit 4.1% this year, does not translate
into concrete improvements in Nigerians’ daily lives, many voters will remain
disappointed. Yet few will use the ballot box to express their disappointment,”
the publication added.
The paper also pointed to identity politics in parts of the
south as potentially playing a role in Tinubu’s likely re-election, especially
in Lagos, the president’s state.
The paper added that “plenty may swallow whatever bad
feelings they have about their day-to-day struggles and vote for their ‘son’.
“No wonder Mr Tinubu feels safe enough to take extended
holidays in Paris.”
Advertise on NigerianEye.com to reach thousands of our daily users
No comments
Post a Comment
Kindly drop a comment below.
(Comments are moderated. Clean comments will be approved immediately)
Advert Enquires - Reach out to us at NigerianEye@gmail.com