A former mayor in the United States,, Mike Arnold, has said the breakup of Nigeria is “likely inevitable and just”.
Arnold, known for being sympathetic to the Biafra struggle,
made the statement in a presentation to members of the US Congress.
In the presentation titled ‘Nigeria at the crossroads: The
case for action’, Arnold, who is also founder and Chairman of Africa Arise
International (Nigeria) and Africa Arise USA, claimed the British colonial
masters never planned for Nigeria to succeed.
Outlining what must happen for Nigeria to emerge from the
crossroads on a path of peace and development, Arnold advocated what he
described as a freely-chosen constitutional future determined through
referendum by the Nigerian people.
“Like so many other British colonial contraptions designed
to fail, separation is likely inevitable — and just: Analytical
characterization drawing on the colonial-era orchestration of Nigerian federal
structure, the Biafran independence question, the 1999 Constitution’s
imposition and the persistent structural Northern political dominance
documented throughout this briefing.
“Historical parallels to British colonial partitions that
ultimately failed or required substantial restructuring include India-Pakistan
(1947), Sudan-South Sudan (2011), the dissolution of British Somaliland, and
Cyprus. The formal position of Africa Arise International and related
initiatives including the proposed Covenant Republic framework advocates for a
freely-chosen constitutional future determined through referendum by the
Nigerian people,” he said.
He described the defunct Republic of Biafra as “then the
fastest-growing economic region on earth for a decade”.
“Eastern Nigerian economic growth rates 1955–1965, per
Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics and World Bank historical data. The
Eastern Region under Premier Michael Okpara’s development program achieved
among the highest sustained growth rates in Africa during the pre-Civil War
period,” he observed.
“The South declared independence in 1967. The British backed
the North, which blockaded the South. Shot down Red Cross planes. Up to three
million, mostly children, starved to death. The Biafran declaration of
independence was May 30, 1967. The war lasted until January 1970. British
government material and political support to the Federal Military Government is
extensively documented. The food blockade imposed by federal forces resulted in
mass starvation; casualty estimates range from 1 million to 5 million,
overwhelmingly from starvation among Igbo civilians, with children
disproportionately affected. Multiple Red Cross and Joint Church Aid relief
aircraft were shot down during the blockade,” Arnold said, noting that British
support for the Nigerian federal forces ensured that Biafra could not succeed.
Highlighting contemporary issues, Arnold raised the alarm
that the alleged Christian genocide in Nigeria has gotten worse since US
President Donald Trump designated Nigeria as a Country of Particular Concern
(CPC).
“Since CPC designation, killing and impunity have only
gotten worse: President Donald Trump redesignated Nigeria as a Country of
Particular Concern (CPC) under the International Religious Freedom Act on
October 31, 2025. Documented violence against Christian communities has
continued and intensified since the designation, including the March 3 Ngoshe
massacre, the Kwara State church attacks, the Palm Sunday Angwan Rukuba
massacre, and the April 2026 Jos pastor bounty case.”
He condemned what he described as intentional denial of
recognition and aid to internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Nigeria, which he
said meets the legal standard of genocide.
According to Arnold, despite the United Nations High
Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) documenting multiple displacement camps in
Abuja from 2015, the Nigerian government under President Bola Tinubu has denied
the existence of such camps. He said the position of the Nigerian government
has forced the UNHCR and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to
de-recognize the IDPs camps.
He accuse the Tinubu administration of paying lip service to
the campaign against Christian genocide in Nigeria, noting that the Nigerian
government stands indicted for genocide for denying the existence of millions
of displaced persons, most especially youths.
“Current UNHCR and IOM reporting — and Nigerian government
communications to international bodies — has removed recognition of many of
these same camps.
“Deliberate non-recognition of IDPs combined with denial of
humanitarian aid and active obstruction of international assistance, where
documented, meets the conditions-of-life standard where intent can be inferred
from pattern,” Arnold added.
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