Nigeria's chronic electricity woes are poised to escalate sharply in the coming weeks, with gas suppliers now cutting off fuel deliveries to key thermal power plants amid an unpaid debt estimated at ₦3.3 trillion owed by power generation companies (GenCos).
Dr. Joy Ogaji, Chief Executive Officer of the Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC), sounded the alarm in recent disclosures, warning that escalating debts across the entire power sector value chain are pushing the industry to the brink of collapse.
This could result in intensified nationwide blackouts and further strain an already fragile grid.Thermal plants, which generate the bulk of Nigeria's electricity (accounting for roughly 70% of grid supply), depend almost entirely on natural gas.
Ogaji explained that around 70% of government obligations to these gas-fired plants flow directly to gas suppliers, equating to approximately ₦3.3 trillion out of roughly ₦4.76 trillion linked to thermal generation.
Gas suppliers have issued formal notices to GenCos that fuel supply will cease until outstanding payments are cleared. This action follows months of mounting liquidity issues, where GenCos have struggled to pay for gas due to massive unpaid invoices from the government and market participants.
The crisis compounds broader sector challenges: total debts owed to GenCos have ballooned to around ₦6.8 trillion (and continuing to grow by roughly ₦200 billion monthly), persistent under-delivery of gas (with plants receiving far below required volumes sometimes as low as 43% of needs), and ongoing load shedding. Recent grid data shows national generation dipping below 4,000 MW (as low as 3,940 MW in early March 2026), well short of demand.
Stakeholders warn that without swift resolution such as accelerated debt settlements, effective payment guarantees, or structural reforms the halt in gas supply risks slashing output even further from thermal stations, worsening hardships for households, businesses, and industries already enduring prolonged outages.
The federal government has acknowledged the issue, with efforts underway involving the Ministries of Power and Petroleum Resources to address gas constraints and sector debts.
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