European refineries are grappling with declining production and capacity reductions, exacerbated by the rise of Nigeria's Dangote Refinery, which is reshaping the African fuel supply chain and curtailing traditional export routes.
According to the Joint Organisations Data Initiative (JODI), UK refinery output fell to 4.104 million tonnes from January to July 2025, down from 4.207 million tonnes in the same period of 2024.
This marks a continued slide toward post-pandemic lows, driven by major closures and diminished operations across the region.
Key shutdowns include Petroineos' Grangemouth refinery in Scotland, with a capacity of 150,000 barrels per day (bpd), and Prax's Lindsey plant in eastern England, at 105,700 bpd.
These closures have reshaped Europe's refining landscape, disrupting trade routes and gasoline supply chains.
In the first seven months of 2025, gasoline production dropped by 58,000 tonnes to 1.201 million tonnes, while gasoil output declined by 92,000 tonnes to 1.357 million tonnes.
Modest increases in jet-kerosene and fuel oil production provided some offset, but the UK is increasingly dependent on imports to meet demand.
Net gasoline imports averaged 805,000 tonnes per month, up 24,000 tonnes from the previous year, while exports fell to 344,000 tonnes monthly—the lowest in over five years.
UK gasoline stocks hit a 38-month low of 795,000 tonnes in July, signaling supply tightness. Industry analysts note that Europe's refining sector has lost 1.52 million bpd since 2016, with total capacity now at around 13.93 million bpd, largely due to competition from newer facilities in the Middle East and Asia, as well as pandemic-related demand shocks.
Compounding these challenges is Africa's pivot toward self-sufficiency, led by the 650,000 bpd Dangote Refinery in Nigeria.
Operational since early 2024 and ramping up to full capacity, the facility has slashed West African gasoline imports from Europe by a third in the first half of 2025, dropping to 285,000 bpd from the prior year.
Previously, about one-third of Europe's 1.33 million bpd gasoline exports went to West Africa, primarily Nigeria, sustaining a $17 billion annual trade.
Dangote's output, including up to 300,000 bpd of gasoline, has flooded local markets, forcing European refiners to seek alternative outlets amid stricter environmental standards and rising global competition.
Analysts from Kpler and FGE warn that 300,000-400,000 bpd of European capacity—particularly older, gasoline-focused plants—could face closure without reconfiguration. Facilities like Grangemouth and Germany's Wesseling are already under pressure, with experts predicting accelerated downsizing as Dangote exports diesel and jet fuel to Europe while dominating regional supplies.
As Europe contends with falling demand from the energy transition and carbon costs, Dangote's emergence signals a broader shift, potentially putting up to 90 European refineries at risk by 2030.
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