By Kalu Okoronkwo
By any political barometer, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso,
former governor of Kano State and former Minister of Defense is not your
everyday Nigerian politician. He is a phenomenon, an institution built on
charisma, grassroots connection, and stubborn ideological defiance.
For years, his political trajectory has been one of
rebellion, reform, and resilience. He defied odds to become Governor of Kano
State twice, navigated Nigeria’s tumultuous political waters as a Senator, and
in 2023 general elections, led the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) to a
surprise “third-force”. Yet, today, conversations are shifting: what if
Kwankwaso makes the most dramatic move of his career by re- joining the All
Progressives Congress (APC)?
This conversation is even made more intense following the
sudden resignation of the APC National Chairman, Alhaji Abdullahi Ganduje.
While the public narrative suggests “internal restructuring,” insiders and
analysts see the move as a calculated sacrifice, a strategic detour, to clear
the path for Ganduje’s long-time rival and one of the most influential
politicians in northern Nigeria, to rejoin the party.
Ganduje’s resignation is more than just the fall of a party
chieftain; it is a political brinksmanship aimed at leveraging the popularity
of Kwankwaso in Kano state for huge political fortune come 2027 elections.
The Tinubu administration, increasingly criticized by northern elites of executing
“Yoruba agenda” and abandoning the region that largely installed it in power,
now finds itself in urgent need of a northern political redeemer, someone with
the street credibility, cult-like grassroots following, and electoral weight to
bridge a growing trust deficit.
For the APC, Kwankwaso fits the bill. His Kwankwasia
Movement is a formidable political platform in Kano state and beyond. For
Kwankwaso himself, this “invitation to power” could be the launch pad for the
presidency he has long dreamt of.
If he chooses to align with the APC, it will be a gamble but
one with high stakes and possibly higher returns. For the party, it would
signal a rebirth. For Kwankwaso, it might just be the final chapter in a
storied career, the path to Aso Rock that no structure alone could pave, but
only influence could unlock.
In a recently circulated and strongly worded statement personally signed by him in
last month, Kwankwaso emphasized that the APC has inflicted untold hardship,
economic deterioration, and deepened insecurity on Nigerians since assuming
power.
He condemned the party’s track record of what he described
as “reckless governance, policy failures, and a disconnect from the everyday
realities of the Nigerian people.”
He said that though the president has personally reached out
to him to consider rejoining the party but despite the flattering promises, he
made it crystal clear to him that he would rather quit politics entirely than
return to the APC, a party that has inflicted immense hardship on Nigerians.
Part of the statement reads: “I wish to state clearly and
unequivocally that President Tinubu personally reached out to me on multiple
occasions, urging me to return to the APC fold. He called me directly and made
several overtures, both in private and through mutual contacts, in a bid to
lure me back to a party that I once helped build but ultimately had to leave
due to its departure from principle and justice.”
Kwankwaso said that during one of his conversations with the
president, he was assured that the party will meet all the conditions he gave
before he can rejoin the fold. “Despite the flattering promises, I made it
crystal clear to him (Tinubu) that I would rather quit politics entirely than
return to the APC, a party that has inflicted immense hardship on Nigerians”,
he said.
At face value, this idea borders on irony. For long,
Kwankwaso has dismissed the APC as an unfit house of contradictions, a
political contraption built on shifting sands. But the big question that stares
Nigerians in the face is: could Kwankwaso’s long-standing rivalry with
Abdullahi Ganduje, former Kano governor and immediate past APC National
Chairman, the reason he never wanted to do anything with APC? Was Ganduje
sacrificed to accommodate Kwankwaso in the party?
But politics, like war, obeys the law of strategic
necessity. And 2027 is not just another election year, it is a turning point in
Nigeria’s democratic journey. The ruling APC, battered by public discontent,
internal cracks, and a leadership struggling with economic hardship and
insecurity, faces the monumental task of renewal or rejection. In that context,
Rabiu Kwankwaso will not just be another defector, but a potential political
dividend too significant to ignore.
The most potent threat to Tinubu’s 2027 ambition is not just
the anger of the masses, it is the quiet convergence of powerful political
rivals, former allies, and embittered party insiders who are now aligning, not
out of love for one another, but out of a shared goal: “Stop Tinubu.”
From PDP governors who feel sidelined in national politics,
to the anti-Tinubu northern elites led by el-Rufai the ground swell of
opposition to Tinubu’s reelection is growing by the day.
This has prompted Tinubu to turn to what he knows best: the
politics of bargaining, coalition-building, and recruiting influence as a
substitute for popularity.
With 2027 drawing closer, Kwankwaso now finds himself at the
centre of Nigeria’s political chessboard. The APC is rumored to be considering
offering him the Vice Presidential ticket — a power-sharing arrangement meant
to seduce his northern base and tap into his electoral machinery.
On paper, the deal seems attractive: national visibility,
institutional resources, and a credible path to the presidency by 2031.
But beneath the surface lies a more sobering possibility:
that Kwankwaso could simply be a means to an end, a disposable political tool
to retain northern votes for a southern presidential candidate, only to be
discarded post-election. It’s a tactic as old as Nigerian politics itself: bait
the North, win the votes, then shift the power dynamics.
This isn’t the first time northern political figures have
been wooed into national alliances with promises of future power. Think of Atiku
Abubakar under Olusegun Obasanjo, or Namadi Sambo under Goodluck Jonathan, both
powerful in their zones, yet relatively politically neutered in the larger
governance arrangement. The question before Kwankwaso is simple: will history
repeat itself — or will he rewrite it?
Unlike some of his predecessors, Kwankwaso commands an
ideological movement, not just political followers. The Kwankwasiyya movement
has shown remarkable staying power and electoral resilience, especially in Kano
and some northern states. This gives him leverage — but only if he negotiates
from strength, not desperation.
Kwankwaso’s political capital is not limited to titles. It
resides in the enduring loyalty of the “Kwankwasiyya Movement” — a cult-like
following of red-capped supporters across northern Nigeria, especially in Kano,
which remains one of the most electorally decisive states in the country.
In 2023, with limited structure and resources, Kwankwaso’s
NNPP clinched Kano decisively and carved out a national conversation on
third-force politics. This feat was not achieved because of strong party
infrastructure; it was the result of influence.
And therein lies the point: APC needs influence more than it
needs more structure. The party already has a bloated organizational
skeleton. What it lacks is a charismatic
mobilizer to inject fresh electoral energy and grassroots vibrancy and
Kwankwaso offers just that.
Should Kwankwaso take the bait, the immediate effect will be
seismic. APC’s northern base would be reinvigorated. Disillusioned northern
voters, who see the current Tinubu-led APC government as indifferent to their
economic and security concerns, may find renewed hope. Kano, long the electoral
goldmine of the North could be locked down, and other states like Jigawa,
Katsina, and Kaduna may follow suit. It would be the shockwave APC needs, a
game-changing recalibration of political arithmetic.
However, Kwankwaso risks alienating his core loyalists, many
of whom view the APC as the embodiment of everything he has fought against —
elitism, betrayal, and exclusion.
If his move is perceived as opportunistic or transactional,
he may find his influence diluted, his movement fractured, and his legacy
tainted. In other words, he may win the vice presidency and lose the soul of
Kwankwasiyya.
Many of Kwankwaso’s loyalists would see such a move as a
betrayal of principle especially after years of painting the party as the face
of Nigeria’s dysfunction. He may risk a portion of his credibility and the pain
could also be personal, not just political.
But politics in Nigeria has a short memory and a long eye on
the future. Should Kwankwaso be able to navigate internal politics, he would
likely emerge as the northern arrowhead in APC’s 2027 equation, potentially
positioning himself as either kingmaker or king.
With President Tinubu constitutionally limited to one more
term and internal power tussles looming, Kwankwaso could stake a bold claim on
the presidency, representing a powerful northern resurgence within a fractured
ruling party.
In a political climate where structure is often mistaken for
power, Kwankwaso’s case reminds us that influence and cult followership remain
the ultimate currency. While other politicians trade loyalty for relevance,
Kwankwaso has maintained a rare authenticity.
His ability to mobilise people, shape narratives, and tilt
electoral outcomes even outside of Nigeria’s traditional party machines proves
he is greater than any banner he flies under.
The APC, facing diminishing returns from old alliances and
internal fatigue, may find its best bet in a man who once stood outside its
gate, fists clenched in protest. But now, with an open hand and strategic
ambition, Kwankwaso may become its most valuable political dividend yet, not
just for 2027, but for the future shape of Nigerian politics.
Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso now stands at a historic
intersection. He can maintain his third-force purity and risk political
isolation, or he can seize the APC lifeline and with it, a genuine shot at
national power. But this is no ordinary defection; it is a test of strategy,
legacy, and foresight.
If played right, Kwankwaso could redefine APC and rewire the
path to the Nigerian presidency.
Okoronkwo, a leadership and good governance advocate writes
from Lagos and can be reached via kalu.okoronkwo@gmail.com
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