Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International
Monetary Fund (IMF), says artificial intelligence (AI) could augment,
downgrade, or eliminate about 40 percent of jobs globally.
Georgieva spoke on Monday during a panel discussion at the
2026 IMF-World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok, Thailand.
The IMF managing director described AI as a “slow-moving
tsunami” for the labour market, saying its effects are already becoming visible
in advanced economies.
“The impact over time on jobs globally we estimate to be
around 40 percent jobs either augmented, or downgraded, or eliminated,” she
said.
Georgieva said IMF research in the United States found that
about 10 percent of jobs already require AI skills, which tend to attract
higher pay.
She said routine and repetitive jobs are shrinking, while
employment is increasing in areas such as data-centre construction and
services.
According to the IMF chief, the net employment impact in the
area covered by the US study was positive, but much of the growth was
concentrated in lower-paying jobs.
Georgieva said young people are particularly vulnerable
because entry-level positions often provide the first opportunity to gain
experience and progress in a career.
“Normally, they would get into these routine, repetitive
jobs and then grow up the ranks. But if they’re gone, young workers could find
it harder to establish themselves in the labour market,” she said.
She urged governments to study changes in employment
patterns, reform education systems, and promote lifelong learning to help
workers adapt to new demands.
“We cannot today imagine what exactly the world of work will
be five years from now, but we can be disciplined and carefully assess what is
happening, and then draw lessons. But most importantly, act on them,” she said.
Georgieva also warned that AI could complicate government
revenue collection if economic activity shifts away from labour towards
capital.
She said governments need to consider how they would
generate sufficient revenue to help societies adapt to changes in the world of
work.
The IMF chief said AI’s impact would vary across economies.
According to Georgieva, estimates suggested that 60 percent
of jobs in advanced economies are exposed to AI, compared with 40 percent
globally and 26 percent in low-income countries.
‘SMALL AI TO BOOST JOBS, PRODUCTIVITY IN DEVELOPING
ECONOMIES’
Also speaking, Ajay Banga, the World Bank president, said
small AI is promoting the use of locally adapted artificial intelligence tools
to improve productivity and support job creation in developing economies.
Banga said small AI applications could help address
practical challenges in healthcare, agriculture, and other sectors,
particularly in places where access to advanced technology and specialist
services remains limited.
“The opportunity from small AI to build jobs and build
productivity is enormous,” he said.
The World Bank boss cited an example of a healthcare clinic
in Indonesia where a nurse could photograph a patient’s skin condition using a
basic mobile phone and share it with a doctor or a locally developed AI tool
for assessment.
“The technology could help the healthcare worker determine
whether the patient needed treatment at the clinic or a referral to a
specialist,” he said.
Banga said such applications could help connect local
healthcare facilities to specialist knowledge that may otherwise be
unavailable.
He also cited an agricultural platform being developed with
Google’s help to connect farmers and cooperatives to improved seeds,
fertilisers, crop insurance, credit and better prices for their produce.
He said the technology could enable farmers to identify crop
diseases using mobile phones and obtain information to help them respond.
Banga said the World Bank’s jobs strategy focuses on five
sectors: infrastructure, agriculture, primary healthcare, tourism and
value-added manufacturing.
He said the sectors could generate locally relevant
employment without relying solely on the traditional model of outsourcing jobs
from advanced economies to developing countries.
“The first is infrastructure; it’s construction, but then
what it enables: bridges, roads, airports, digitisation, electricity, water,
but also human infrastructure in terms of skilling and education,” he said.
Banga said developing economies could also use AI to support
small businesses and entrepreneurs by making technology and market access more
affordable.
However, he said countries would need reliable electricity,
digital infrastructure, appropriate skills, and policies that encourage
investment to take advantage of the technology.
Banga said the aim is to use AI as a productivity enhancer
in emerging markets, particularly in sectors that could expand employment and
improve access to essential services.
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