‘Outright win in 17 states’ — new poll predicts victory for Tinubu


A new poll has favoured Bola Tinubu, standard-bearer of the All Progressives Congress (APC), to win the presidential election.


The Nigerian Human Rights Community (NHRC), which conducted the poll, said it was based on information obtained from 19,365 people as of January.


Aside from Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) are considered to be leading candidates.


Speaking on Wednesday at a media briefing in Lagos, Taiwo Adeleye, secretary-general of the NHRC, said 7,940 (41%) of the people interviewed in the 774 LGAs of the 36 states and the federal capital territory (FCT) preferred Tinubu.


The secretary-general also said 5,035 (26%) preferred Abubakar; 4,067 (21%) supported Obi, and 1,743 (9%) rooted for Kwankwaso.


“The NHRC poll revealed that the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu, holds a magnificent lead and is on course to win the 2023 general election,” Adeleye said.


“The poll also confirms a two-horse race for the second position between Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, while Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP came a distant fourth, as all other contestants together scored an insignificant total.”


Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Cross River, Kwara, Kogi, Nasarawa, Niger, Kaduna, Zamfara, Jigawa, Borno, Yobe, and Gombe are the 17 states the poll predicted a win for Tinubu.


The poll also indicated that Tinubu will secure at least 25 percent of votes in the following states — Imo, Ebonyi, Edo, Benue, Plateau, FCT, Kano, Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, and Taraba; while Abubakar is expected to win in seven states listed as Adamawa, Taraba, Sokoto, Edo, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, and Delta.


The poll predicted a victory for Kwankwaso only in his home state of Kano, while for Obi, he is expected to win in Anambra, Enugu, Imo, Ebonyi, Abia, Benue, and Rivers.


The NHRC listed Tinubu’s advantage to include his Islamic background, as well as support from APC governors.


 “He holds a slight advantage in Kaduna where Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar are jostling for the second position,” Adeleye said.


“Muslim men and women of Yoruba extract favour his candidacy while he also has the backing of the majority of Muslims in the north.


“It is expected that he comfortably leads in Cross River state as a result of the broad-based voter support the Cross River state governor has within this state.


“He has considerable support in states where the incumbent governor is a member of the APC.”

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