A new poll has revealed that Atiku Abubakar, the
presidential candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is favourite to
win the national election scheduled to hold on February 25.
According to the new poll conducted by POLAF, a
not-for-profit organisation, the election will be Keely contested among the top
contenders.
The results of the poll, which was conducted between July
2022 and February 2023, ruled out the possibility of a run-off, insisting that
the Adamawa-born politician will win in most of the states.
On the methodology used for the poll, the organisation said
three states were selected in each geopolitical zone, with an extra state
selected from the South-South and South-West to make the number of states from
which samples were drawn 20 out of 36 plus the Federal Capital Territory.
It said the sample was drawn from the voter register of the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), adding that 3,123,660
respondents across 165 local government areas were contacted via telephone and
were spoken to in English and any other native language they were most
comfortable speaking in.
The poll report stated clearly that things may change before
and on election day.
Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Labour Party
(LP), has made significant inroads into the Middle Belt and other strongholds
of PDP – a development that has been confirmed by other polls. Governor Samuel
Ortom of Benue State recently endorsed Obi.
Most of the polls released so far have tipped Obi to win the
election. He was predicted as the winner in all the three polls commissioned by
the ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited.
Some have questioned if there is enough data to support an
Atiku win. A person who knows about the POLAF poll but chose to speak
anonymously said: “Obi has garnered most of the PDP base.”
In the POLAF poll, Atiku secured 38 percent to emerge as the
preferred candidate, followed by Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress
(APC), who got 29 percent, while Obi secured 27 percent to take the third
position. Rabiu Kwakwanso of the New Nigerian People’s Party (NNPP) is a
distant fourth with only 5 percent of the total votes. The survey also projects
that the PDP and the APC are the only two parties to comfortably secure the
constitutionally required 25 percent across 24 states and the Federal Capital
Territory. The LP and the NNPP are seen to be struggling in this regard.
“The poll survey shows each candidate’s position vide
parameters and voters’ concerns. Four of 10 respondents are certain that their
positions on candidates are made; three of 10 believe vote buying would
influence their choice for voting; while the remainder awaiting guidance
direction (from religious leaders, market associations, trade unions, etc.)”
POLAF said in the report.
The majority of the respondents expressed dissatisfaction
with the way the APC-led administration under President Muhammadu Buhari has
handled the economy.
Ninety-five percent of the total respondents agree that the
current government has performed worse than ever, according to the poll.
Afrobarometer, which conducted a survey in March 2022, said
there had been significant shifts in the mood and affiliations of the Nigerian
public.
“Citizens are overwhelmingly gloomy in their assessments of
the country’s overall direction, the national economy, their personal living
conditions, and the government’s performance on crime and violence, and
affiliation with the two major political parties is on a rapid decline. These
findings suggest a broad desire for change and a widening political field,” it
said.
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