Bayelsa: Battle for PDP Guber Ticket Thickens

 TIMI ALAIBE, TIMIPREYE SYLVA, BEN MURRAY-BRUCE and SERIAKE DICKSON

As he returns to Nigeria Monday after a one-week visit to Australia during which he attended the summit of the Commonwealth Heads of Government, President Goodluck Jonathan has waiting for him pressing issues, some national, some provincial, that demand his urgent attention.

However, to his fellow party men in the Peoples Democratic Party, they need him to lead the way on who to support among the eight aspirants who are jostling to rule Bayelsa State next year on the platform of the ruling party.

Ordinarily, the president should have no business with the decision on who becomes the party’s governorship candidate in a state; it is a provincial matter beneath the dignity of his office.

But that is not the case in Nigeria, especially if the president is from the state where, given the atypical nature of national politics, he would become the butt of jokes if he inadvertently allows the “wrong” candidate to emerge.

A top Nigeria politician is not worth his membership card if he cannot swing things the right way in his home base. His inability to do so leaves him naked, literally, as his opponents, even in his party, could latch on that to undermine his influence.

Since the Bayelsa governorship race began, every stakeholder has been trying to read the body language of the president or his mind. The president, however, has kept his game plan to his chest.

His reticence on the matter has triggered a guessing game and driven a swirling rumour mill on who would get the party’s ticket. It has also led to many of the aspirants touting his name as their main backer.

What is becoming glaring so far in this waiting game is incumbent governor, Mr. Timipreye Sylva, may find it difficult to get the PDP’s nod to retain his position.

Although, the governor’s camp has stridently denied rumours of a rift between him and Jonathan, there are indications in political circles to the contrary. The rift, real or imagined, may or may not work against Sylva’s second term ambition on PDP’s platform.

The hope of his main challenger and former presidential adviser on the Niger Delta, Mr. Timi Alaibe, to emerge as the party’s candidate is also uncertain. There are indications that Alaibe’s  governorship bid is being frustrated by some power brokers who want to truncate his efforts to get a waiver from the PDP to contest in the party's primary on November 19.

It was gathered that the party’s national secretariat had rejected the plan by the south-south zone of the party to grant him a waiver. According to sources, the party is claiming that it no longer issues automatic waiver to members.

Alaibe left PDP for the Labour Party last year to run for the governorship poll before the ruling of a Federal High Court, which suspended the conduct of the April 2011 governorship election in Bayelsa State alongside four others.

A source at the party’s national secretariat hinted that the party has insisted on implementing the decision of the National Executive Committee as far as waivers were concerned.

The cloud over the ambitions of the two leading contenders in the Bayelsa governorship race, Sylva and Alaibe, has brightened the chances of those who, ordinarily, would be regarded as laggards in the contest.

The permutation in political circles is that if neither Sylva nor Alaibe picks the PDP ticket, then it will be a race between the chairman, House of Representatives Committee on Special Duties, Hon. Seriake Dickson and president of the Silverbird Group, Mr. Ben Murray-Bruce.

The possibility of this happening is raising questions and leading to scenario building in the state. One possibility is that if Sylva and Alaibe lose the party’s ticket, with Alaibe disqualified based on not granting him a waiver and the governor is outfoxed in the game of intrigues, both may forget their differences and join forces to fight PDP during the election.

If Alaibe fails to get a clear presidential support for his governorship bid, his cross over back to the PDP may result in a stillborn campaign.

As attractive as this consideration looks on the surface, it seems far-fetched given the history of the relationship between the duo.  In fact, the state Commissioner for Information, Communication and Strategy, Chief Nathan Egba, dismissed such a possibility.

According to him, there is no basis for both men to team up against the PDP because Sylva already has provisional clearance while Alaibe is yet to get the party’s nod that will qualify him for the November 19 governorship primary.

An aide of Alaibe, who craved anonymity, further said that irrespective of the outcome of his principal’s application for the waiver, he would not team up with anybody or group to fight either the president or PDP.

However, if Sylva and Alaibe should team up, PDP might have a battle on its hands that it did not anticipate. While the governor has the advantage of incumbency and has been able to transform himself into a potent force in Bayelsa politics in the last four years, Alaibe is a grassroots mobiliser and bonds well with the masses.

Both have strong political structures that could be deployed to achieve their objective. The combination of their strengths becomes a potent force that could rattle the PDP in the February 11, 2012 governorship election. 

The alternative, however, is for them to fight separately with Alaibe returning to LP which he single-handedly rejuvenated and made a party to be reckoned with in Bayelsa politics and Sylva seeking another platform to actualise his second term ambition.

Of all the aspirants, Dickson and Murray-Bruce, for now, are considered the likeliest beneficiaries of the plot to push out Sylva and Alaibe from the PDP. Although Murray-Bruce is classified among the underdogs in the race, his closeness to the presidency may strengthen his candidacy.

Besides, he could garner massive youth votes and mobilise a huge war chest globally.

Indeed, it will be fool-hardy for anyone to completely write him off, as his pedigree as a successful businessman and closeness to the president may see him emerging as the dark horse in the contest.

But it was gathered that some power blocs in the presidency are taking advantage of Jonathan's seeming lukewarm attitude to project Dickson above other aspirants.

The permutation among stakeholders in Bayelsa politics is that given the current events in the party, Dickson may end up being the PDP governorship candidate for the February election. What is not certain is if he can win.

Many have argued that if PDP fields him, Sylva would be forced to seek an alternative platform to actualise his second term bid and defeating the PDP candidate would not be so much of a difficult task, as the electorate may decide to throw their weight behind the incumbent.

However, with an appeal on the tenure elongation case pending before the Supreme Court, a negative judgment may negate the incumbency factor towards the poll.

Whatever the case may be, the issue on who will be the PDP governorship candidate and how other aspirants will react is still fluid. Everybody seems to be waiting for the state’s number one politician, Jonathan, to decide which way the pendulum would swing.

The Aspirants... How They Match Up

TIMIPREYE SYLVA

Strengths
• The incumbency factor: he is still the man to beat
• Has a formidable political structure and is experienced in governance
• Will benefit from the support of his aides, commissioners and others.

Weaknesses
• His alleged rift with President Goodluck Jonathan may cost him the PDP ticket
• If denied the PDP ticket, joining another camp could weaken his campaign
• He could be distracted by criticisms, allegations
and negative Supreme Court ruling on tenure which may deny him incumbency towards the poll

TIMI ALAIBE

Strengths
• He has strong political structures to drive his campaign
• Is widely regarded as a grassroots mobiliser
• He is highly popular among the masses and some of the state political elite
• Is a seasoned administrator, conversant with the challenges facing the state and how to solve them

Weaknesses
• Some fear his popularity among the people and feel he may not be easy to control
• Without a PDP waiver and a clear presidential support, his cross over back to PDP may lead to a stillborn campaign.

BEN MURRAY-BRUCE

Strengths
• Stands a strong chance if backed by his friend, President Godluck Jonathan
• Is a mercurial, entrepreneur, entertainer and TV personality
• He could garner massive youth votes.
• Is well educated and well connected in the private sector
• Can mobilised a huge war chest globally
• He is considered the president’s joker

Weaknesses
• He is barely known in Bayelsa, especially among the masses
• He lacks the political structures in the state to execute his ambition
• Being from the governor’s senatorial district, he may not enjoy support from the area

SERIAKE DICKSON

Strengths
• He is quite and effective
• He is close to the president
• As a lawmaker, he is popular in some parts of the state
• He could be a beneficiary of the moves to stop Sylva and Alaibe 

Weaknesses
• He lacks broad-based support among the people
• He is considered inexperienced in governance
• He lacks strong political structures like Sylva and Alaibe

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