Why Nigerians must reject the second coming of Buhari - Femi Aribisala



Muhammadu Buhari overthrew a democratically-elected government in a coup d”etat in 1983, Sani Abacha declared in his infamous radio broadcast: “(Our) health services are in shambles as our hospitals are reduced to mere consulting clinics without drugs, water and equipment.”



However, Buhari did not address the shambolic Nigerian health system in his two years in power. In a Vanguard article of 7th February, 2015, Ambassador Ignatius Olisemeka said of Buhari: “He entrusted to me the care and welfare of his family- he sent his wife and two children to me in Washington D.C. for medical treatment. His family were with me in Washington D.C. when the General was overthrown in a coup d’état.”

Thus, while Buhari was grandstanding as Mr. Fix-It, he sought medical care surreptitiously for his family in the United States, instead of fixing the Nigerian health system. This typifies the hypocrisy and insincerity of Buhari as an agent of change. It is all smoke and mirrors. It is the same duplicity whereby he claimed to be the apostle of anti-corruption even while being complicit in the smuggling in of 53 suitcases at Murtala Mohammed Airport, Lagos in the middle of a currency change.

Buharinomics

Buhari’s grandstanding must not be allowed to go unchallenged today, now that he is seeking election under the same kind of democratic system he truncated and trashed in the past. We must not allow Buhari to sweep his ignominious past under the carpet of a bogus mantra of “change.” Indeed, there is something anomalous about presenting a 72 year-old former military dictator as a change candidate. What kind of change can be represented by an old has-been?

In his first coming, the “changes” Buhari brought were to Nigeria’s detriment. Under him, the Nigerian economy went from bad to worse. Our national debt rose from $14 billion to $18 billion in less than two years; with the result that Nigeria was no longer able to meet its financial obligations to global bankers. We had to queue for essential commodities, such as bread and milk, which were hard to find. Raw materials and spare parts needed to keep factories running were scarce. Rather than create jobs, tens of thousands of workers lost their jobs. Inflation rose to the astronomical level of 40%; while it is now 7.9% under Jonathan.

When Buhari seized power in 1983, Nigeria’s GDP was $444.45. When he was overthrown in 1985, Nigeria’s GDP had dropped dramatically to $344.14. That is not the kind of change we want. When Goodluck Jonathan became president in 2010, Nigeria’s GDP was $369. By 2014, it had grown dramatically to $510.

Buhari is going around complaining about the recent devaluation of the naira. However, when he took over in 1983, one dollar exchanged for 0.724 naira. But by the time he was overthrown in 1985, one dollar exchanged for 0.894 naira. That is 23% devaluation in barely two years. However, when Jonathan took over in 2010, one dollar exchanged for $167 naira. Five years later, it is now $202.55. That is a devaluation of 21% in five years.

It is not surprising, therefore that, when Buhari was overthrown in 1985, there was wild jubilation throughout the length and breadth of the country.

Unleashing the dogs and the baboons

One of the first things Buhari did when he seized power in 1984 was to gag the press. Decree 4 was promulgated making even the publishing of the truth a criminal offence. Under it, Nduka Irabor and Tunde Thompson were jailed maliciously in a manner designed primarily to intimidate the press.

Under Buhari, the SSS came looking for me because I published an article in National Concord entitled: “Counter-trading Nigeria’s Future;” criticizing the government’s return to the stone age economic policy of trade by barter which resulted in even greater fraud than import licensing. Buhari is now angling to return to power under a democratic setting. But has this leopard changed its skin? In spite of his carefully crafted makeover by his American handlers, has Buhari changed from his anti-democratic ways?

All the evidence suggests he has not. Buhari is not even president and he is already fighting the press. Recently, he threatened to back out of the Abuja Peace Accord concluded with Goodluck Jonathan and the PDP because he was upset about the insults and attacks he was receiving. He warned that no one should regard his “patriotic commitment to maintaining national peace” for weakness.

Buhari’s handlers declared: “We cannot continue to guarantee the tolerance limit of our teeming supporters nationwide who are daily being inundated with death wish commentaries on the person of General Muhammadu Buhari.” What exactly does this mean? Is Buhari now going to unleash his infamous dogs and baboons on Nigerians? This is why it would be foolhardy to mortgage the freedoms we have come to enjoy under the democratic dispensation by handing power back to a man who is intolerant of criticism.

Let us juxtapose Buhari’s short fuse to the disposition of Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan must be the most wrongly vilified president in the history of Nigeria. He has been called all kinds of names by his traducers. He has been abused, reviled and condemned by APC stalwarts. His motorcade has been stoned. His campaign posters have been torn down. His campaign ground has been bombed. His wife has been maligned. How has he responded to all this?

Jonathan responded by signing the Freedom of Information bill. In effect, instead of gagging the press, in the tradition of malevolent dictators like Buhari, he has freed the press even more; allowing it to criticize his government without hindrance. In every way possible for the past five years, Jonathan has assured and reassured Nigerians that freedom of expression is our inalienable right.

The myth of Buhari’s northern popularity

One of the lies of the Buhari campaign is the pretense that he has cornered the Northern vote. Nothing could be further from the truth. As a matter of fact, in this election, Buhari is not the choice of the North. The Northern political elite don’t want Buhari to be president. The North did not vote for him in the APC presidential primaries. The Northern vote went instead to Rabiu Kwankwaso and Atiku Abubakar. Buhari was elected primarily with Southern ACN votes.

Let me ask some pertinent questions. How many Northern elites have we seen recently campaigning for Buhari? We have seen Tinubu following Buhari around. We have heard Obasanjo and Soyinka pitching their tents with him. But the Northern elite have largely kept mum. Governors Fashola, Oshiomole and Amaechi of the South have been busy singing choruses of praise about Buhari, but Northern governors are mute. Atiku and Kwankwaso have largely kept their distance from him.

Why are they not shouting on the rooftops for Buhari? The truth is that the Northern elite have never liked Buhari. Therefore, it is not in their interest for him to become president. Buhari’s grandstanding on anti-corruption resonates with the poor, but not with the Northern elite. Should Buhari become president, most of the current Northern presidential hopefuls can no longer be president in their lifetime. Eight years of Buhari presidency would swing the presidency back to the South for another eight years. But these Northern bigwigs don’t have 16 years to wait in the wilderness. Some of them would even have kicked the bucket by then.

It is better for them to wait for Jonathan to finish his second-term in 2019, at which time they would be able to contest for the presidency without having to deal with an incumbent president. What they need now is the assurance that it would then be the turn of the North. In that eventuality, South-South support for a Northern presidential candidate would be imperative. 2015 is not the time to jeopardize this.
The strategic partnership of the North and the South-South has been the enduring decimal of Nigerian elections. The South-South has supported the North in every election, except when its own son, Goodluck Jonathan, was on the ballot. The North must be careful not to betray that partnership, if for no other reason than that it will need it again in the near future. It must be careful not to betray that partnership because Jonathan has done far more for the North in his five years in power than he has for any other part of the country, including the South-South. In short, there is no excuse for Northern denial of support for Jonathan in 2015.

The federal government’s mid-term assessment of its development investment shows that the investment in the North-West and the North-Central zones alone amounted to 792 billion naira; nearly double those of the South-West, South-South and South-East put together, which amounted to 403 billion naira. If the North fails to support Jonathan in the coming presidential election, in spite of Jonathan’s obvious discrimination in favour of the North, it can bid farewell to South-South support in the future.

With all the noise about Buhari’s popularity with the talakawa in the North, we have not heard anything that he has ever done, or would do, for them. When he was head of state between 1984 and 1985, he did absolutely nothing for them. In the unlikely event that Jonathan becomes president, it would not take long before there would be rioting among the Northern poor out of dashed and betrayed hope.

The man who has transformed the life of the poor in the North has been Goodluck Jonathan. Jonathan built 125 Almajiri Schools in 13 states in the North; something Northern rulers like Buhari failed to do. At the commissioning of the first Almajiri Model School in Gagi, Sokoto State, the Sultan of Sokoto, Alhaji Abubakar Sa’ad III, observed that Jonathan’s action was unprecedented in the history of Northern Nigeria.

Jonathan also established ten new federal universities; seven of them in the North. Jonathan has made far more appointments of Northerners than he has of Southerners. His transformation of agriculture from subsistence to commercial farming has been of primary benefit to the agrarian North. Therefore, it will come as no surprise if Jonathan wins more votes in the North in 2015 than he did in 2011.
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  1. Femi it is too late to brandish us with this your cock and bull story. Please tell us something different because it is too late. We need a change, even if the change is coming from a mad man or a goat, no problem. They are better than you boss, Goodluck Ebele Jonathan. I will rather vote late Abacha than vote for Goodluck Jonathan. Ewu di ka gi. Nonsence man

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    1. Professional and confirmed idiot that's what you are

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    2. Professional and confirmed idiot that's what you are

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    3. You are really blind and confused because by supporting Apc & Buhari you inadvertently desiring for absolute negative & backward change. However , i am sorry for you because such change is not possible in nigeria. So if you don't want #GEJ till 2019, pack you belongings and move out of the country, because GEJ has been ordained to continue to rule Nigeria till 2019.

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    4. You get what you vote. It will however be too late by then, because of GMB is voted in, you have lost that right forever.

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  2. Femi you tell nigerians wat ur oga did to deserve second coming

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  3. Rubbish, rubbish, be disciplined. You will soon betained to be disciplined soon.

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  4. Rubbish, rubbish, be disciplined. You will soon betained to be disciplined soon.

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    1. Do you mean that when APC win they will be detaining people who say their opinions?

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    2. All supporter of GEJ and PDP I have something to tell you, if you think GEJ has done well, Pray hard that God will not do to you what GEJ has done to Nigeria, pray hard that your sisters, daughters, wives and mothers will not disappear in the hands of Bokohararm, pray hard that vultures will not it up your corpse just like the are eating the corpse of nigerian citizen that are murdered by bokoharam in the northeast nigeria. Pray hard that your village will never be like Baga... watch it!!! be sincere to yourselves #bringbackourgirls

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    3. YES! GEJ will know and trust and he's coming for second term! kill yourself if you are pained. as for your boko haram theory, tell your candidate buhari to talk to his boys and they will obliged him and stop.....end of story

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  5. Rubbish, rubbish, be disciplined. You will soon betained to be disciplined soon.

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  6. This old man will soon die because of Buhari. Agbaya, alainironu, alainitiju. Oponu aye rada.

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    1. Ur fada will die soon,oloriburuku,the old man is passing a good mssg.we are enjoying ur wise word.

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    2. Ur fada will die soon,oloriburuku,the old man is passing a good mssg.we are enjoying ur wise word.

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  7. Mumu Aribisala. You are giving medicine after death.

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  8. The facts mentioned should be confirm rather than anticipate for a change one is not certain about because words are easier said than action..stay open to the truth and acknowledge it.

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  9. Does anyone know the Mobile number of the old fool? He needs some true talk.

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  10. Mad man has started again. I thought you were tired of this rubbish. Not knowing that you are still in it.

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  11. When I listen to fela's songs,it appears like he jst sang it....dat same set of corrupt minded fools are stil looming abt preachin change....plz let's not b deceived....is obvious dat our brain has bn programmed dat we tink notin bt fight among us....naija can only change if u nd me desire. Politicians only tink of nxt election. Be WISE

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  12. I thought dis man don die, all of a sudden d old fool don resurrect

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  13. Femi a. Are u just waking up from ur slumber?

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  14. Femi, very candid write up. Don't give up. I wish Nigerians will read your write up dispassionately and be educated. Nigerians will be very disappointed with the election of APC in the Presidency after the first year of euphoria, but you should continue to say your bit as a patriotic Nigerian.

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  15. Jimi Disu has been talking about your article for a while and recommending for all to read. I wonder why? These are my thoughts below:
    1. Medical Services – Mr. Aribisala, it takes more than 2 years to fix any type of institutional problem in Nigeria. GEJ hasn’t been able to fix power, ID Cards or rail in Nigeria in 6years. I am not saying this makes him bad, but just using these examples to prove my point.

    2. “Old Has-Been” – I do not see the reason to resort to “name calling”. If a former Military Dictator decides he wants to rule again and pursues this goal through democratic and legal processes, please explain how this is bad. Besides, it is naive to think that he would successfully rule in a democratic dispensation, the way he did when he headed a Military Government. In a Military Government, opposition to the Ruling Council does not exist, under democratic rule; the President has to contend with the National Assembly and the Judiciary.

    3. Gagging the Press – see Number 2

    4. 53 Suitcases – Can anyone give another example of corruption during the Buhari/Idiagbon regime? This seems to be the only example ever used to show that Buhari is/can be corrupt.

    5. National Debt – Mr. Aribisala, it almost seems as though you do not have a good idea of how the finances of any large entity works. A growth in National Debt from $14B to $18B could come as a result of several things. An example could be a loan taken during the Shagari administration that had undisbursed tranches due in a period that fell in the Buhari regime.

    6. Inflation – Agreed GEJ has done a good job in this area. However, your fact on Nigeria’s 1984 inflation is wrong. Nigeria had an inflation of 17.8% in 1984 down from 23.2% in 1983 and further reduced to 7.4% in 1985 (Buhari ruled for 8 out of 12 months so please do not credit IBB). http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Nigeria/Inflation/

    7. GDP – Again, not sure where you get your information from but the GDP for Nigeria between 1983 and 1985 (using the value of the USD in 2000 as a constant basis) are as follows (http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Nigeria/GDP_constant_dollars/) :
    • 1983 - $50.5B
    • 1984 - $49.5B
    • 1985 - $53.5B

    8. FX – Here, you are very correct. The Naira devalued by 23% (approx) over 2 years of the Buhari regime. It also devalued by 21% within 3 months (between 11/2014 and 02/2015). Which is better?

    9. North being silent - So what? There’s no point arguing here. It appears you already nullified your argument. The Atikus and Kwankwansos cannot contest again in 2019 due to age. They may as well support Jonathan. So they are not doing that because Buhari is bad for the people, he’s just bad for them and their ambitions.

    10. Almajiri Schools – GEJ only built these schools after Boko Haram came into the picture, something I doubt Buhari would have allowed.

    11. Your Actual Reason for this Article – “Under Buhari, the SSS came looking for me because I published an article in National Concord entitled: “Counter-trading Nigeria’s Future;” criticizing the government’s return to the stone age economic policy of trade by barter which resulted in even greater fraud than import licensing”.

    So he came after you 30 years ago and you still cannot move on?

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  16. I wish that Femi Aribisala turn himself to a judge in the Supreme Court so as to fast track General Buhari disqualification from the presidential race, as the case will be handled by him personally. But which kind of country is this? Where the wishes of and voices of the common men will not see the light of the day, where those that should be respected as elder statesmen are morally degenerated, where some individuals will twist truth to falsehood because of their selfish interest, where people lack the fear of God, forgetting they will be questioned about their deeds by their creator. This man fathers some children or in position of father to some people, then of what model is this man to them. Femi Aribisala, a man of dead conscience, enemy of good governance, tormentor and antagonist of the poor and common man, a servant of the desperados and the cabals. I pray that God reward you of your deeds accordingly.

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  17. Mr. Femi Aribisala please stop twisting facts. I was born in the seventies and I can still remember the Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon era very well and I can say that it was the last time that we have sanity in our country.

    I will vote for him again and again no amount of PDP/GEJ propaganda will make me change my mind.

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  18. GMB has already failed. He cannot win election in Nigeria. Nigerians have rejected him thrice at the polls. This one cannot be different. No amount of wish can change this. Power belongs to God.

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